INDIA’S STRATEGIC TRAJECTORY IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF CAPABILITIES, CHALLENGES, AND GEOPOLITICAL DIMENSIONS

Abstract

Artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a defining axis of 21st-century geopolitical and economic competition. This article examines India’s positioning within the evolving global AI landscape through a multidimensional lens integrating research and development (R and D) capacity, start-up ecosystems, digital infrastructure, national policy frameworks, and geopolitical dynamics. Drawing on 2023 global AI vibrancy benchmarks — including India’s 6th-place rank on the Stanford HAI Global Vibrancy Tool, a projected domestic AI economic contribution of USD 1 trillion by 2035 (NASSCOM, 2023), and India’s 2% share of worldwide server deployments in 2022 — the article situates India as a high-potential but structurally constrained AI actor. India commands formidable strengths in technical human capital and software services heritage, yet faces persistent deficits in frontier research output, computing infrastructure, and regulatory coherence. The article argues that navigating these contradictions requires a coordinated grand strategy coupling domestic capacity-building with proactive norm entrepreneurship in multilateral AI governance forums.